Annual report 2023 Medium-term capacity planning and the new EU regulation

Implementing medium-term capacity planning according to the new EU regulation

The new regulation on the use of railway infrastructure capacity in the single European railway area

As we write these lines, the European Parliament has just passed a regulation which aims to improve the use of rail infrastructure capacity. The text includes changes to the rules on the planning and allocation of railway infrastructure capacity. The aim of these changes is to allow rail infrastructure capacity and traffic to be managed more efficiently, thereby improving the service quality, and optimising the use of the railway network, accommodating larger volumes of traffic and ensuring that the transport sector contributes fully to decarbonisation.

More specifically, the regulation includes:

  • general rules for domestic and international capacity management aligned to the three phases of the “Timetable Redesign for Smart Capacity Management” project (TTR) developed by the EU rail sector: capacity strategy, capacity model and capacity supply
  • obligations on infrastructure managers to work together to develop a European framework for capacity management, with specific provisions for the management of scarce infrastructure capacity in cases of restrictions relating to work on infrastructure and degraded infrastructure
  • obligations concerning traffic management, disruption and crisis management and related cross-border coordination
  • a performance review framework, with monitoring tasks for the European Network of Infrastructure Managers (ENIM), and a new performance review body
  • the deployment of digital tools enabling better capacity and traffic management.

While a harmonised framework such as TTR enforces the role of the medium-term planning processes among infrastructure managers (IMs), it should also make it possible to ensure seamless and continuous planning and meet the growing capacity demands of passengers and freight railway undertakings (RUs) on scarce infrastructure. In this context, various factors such as resource allocation, risk mitigation and stakeholder engagement play pivotal roles in optimising the capacity planning processes.

This article focuses on the two phases capacity strategy and capacity model and on how a comprehensive medium-term planning approach addresses these critical aspects to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of railway capacity planning.

According to the new regulation, the capacity strategy (covering months M-60 to M-36) outlines expectations for future demand and supply on rail infrastructure. It serves as a tool for communication and coordination between stakeholders and includes information on infrastructure development and the demand outlook. A strategic route map is prepared within the capacity strategy, which defines the geographical scope and alternative lines to be used in case of infrastructure capacity restrictions (TCRs). Infrastructure managers must prepare, publish, and regularly update the capacity strategy, consulting with applicants and coordinating with other IMs.

Additionally, the new regulation defines a capacity model phase (covering months M-36 to M-18) to refine the strategy based on the outcome of consultations. It provides information on partitioning available capacity for the different market segments (type of rail services) and TCRs. IM’s must document any deviations between the capacity model and the capacity strategy and again consult with applicants while coordinating with other IMs.

In alignment with these two phases the new regulation also requires objective measurements of capacity and performance reviews at national and international scale and wants to increase transparency on these issues in a way to foster trust and collaboration which facilitates informed decision-making.

There is room for interpretation following different situations and needs.

The European Commission is taking the lead on the way forward to a new capacity planning and allocation process. After the adoption of the regulation, member states and IMs will need to comply with it. Having said that, the needs of European IMs are diverse and might depend on the specific situation of each national system. The spirit of the new European regulation follows this logic, leaving some room for manoeuvre in its implementation.

The tangible needs for flexibility of freight services and/or TCR’s within the medium- to short-term planning process might understandably collide with the possible forms of long-term capacity concepts. While the question of TCRs remains a challenge that often differs significantly between networks, depending on their balance between the volume of development projects (CAPEX), renewal and maintenance needs (OPEX), the nature, the form, and the binding character of train services within the capacity strategy/model deliverables is subject to interpretation within the European rail community: Should these be timetables or not? Systematic or not? Should they be binding?  While this discussion is ongoing, some networks have already started to implement these tools in their capacity planning and management processes.

Switzerland, although not part of the European Union, has decided to publish its Network Usage Plans (NUPs) as basis for TTR Capacity Strategies. The NUPs are binding for SBB Infrastructure and contain the capacity available in a 1-hour systematic timetable which represents a peak hour. These NUPs are the last stages in a longer-term process in which resources (infrastructure, equipment and rolling stock) are derived and phased from a timetable-based network strategy where the timetable is not the goal, rather it is a means to an end as part of the masterplan. Following the principle that infrastructure, equipment and rolling stock shall be derived from a service concept (i.e. meaning that the functional requirements fulfil the needs of a capacity plan, essentially a timetable, agreed between all stakeholders in the framework of an institutionalised iterative process), this timetable should be regarded in the later downstream phases, as not doing so would be detrimental to the overall capacity of the system. Working this way, Switzerland complies with the European TTR principles of “semi-pre-planned products” (ready-made capacity products as well as residual capacity for shorter term tailor-made orders) and this supports its planning and network development philosophy.

In Germany, the medium-term concept for optimised capacity utilisation (“mittelfristiges Konzept für eine optimierte Kapazitätsnutzung”: mKoK) is to provide the basis for the TTR Capacity Model. Indeed, as a 2-hour systematic timetable, mKoK introduces a new pre-structuring planning deliverable for optimised capacity utilisation in times of increasingly scarce resources and is intended to provide transparency regarding available capacity for each type of transport and thus more planning security for all stakeholders in the subsequent allocation process, be it for frame contracts or ad-hoc provision. In addition, DB InfraGO is using the mKoK to develop the key process elements that will be essential for implementing the phasing of Deutschlandtakt, the timetable-based rail infrastructure development program in Germany.

In France, reference operating plans (Plans d’Exploitation de Référence: PER) are derived from masterplans (Plans d’Exploitation Émergents: PEE) to provide the basis for the TTR Capacity Strategies. Today, a PER is not intended to be revised for annually, rather only in the event of necessary or structural changes to the capacity offer. The PER are a 2-hour systematic timetable supported by where appropriate, a 24-hour timetable giving indicative values for the type and number of trains for each systematic path. Currently, the PER creates neither rights nor obligations, either for SNCF Réseau or for capacity applicants. However, compliance with the PER for the subsequent process is good practice that promotes capacity optimisation and the efficiency of the timetable development process, ultimately benefiting everyone.

Another requirement of the European process is the deployment of models and tools to facilitate a common capacity intelligence language that support the implementation of key performance indicators (KPIs) and visualisations which reflect the inherent complexity of capacity planning and allocation challenges. In view of this, a minimum viable product (MVP) project funded by the European Commission and carried out by SMA on behalf of the North-Sea – Med Rail Freight Corridor demonstrated how infrastructure, paths and TCRs data could be compiled and how such KPIs could be calculated and displayed in a comprehensive framework usable over different scales of time and space by the capacity stakeholders involved in the TTR process.

Overall, these tools allow for better and more predictable resource allocation for all stakeholders: international, national or regional authorities, and railway undertakings (RUs). They help to build support, address harmonisation concerns, and foster positive relationships in the institutional planning process.

Navigating the shallow waters of medium-term capacity planning

The stakeholders of the medium-term capacity planning process, and particularly the IMs, need methods and tools to ensure continuity (i.e. through continuous model refinement), consistency and coherence across the process phases. With its methodologies and tools, SMA already supports SBB-I, DB InfraGO, and SNCF Réseau on the previously described TTR implementation cases at national levels or the RFC North-Sea - Med for KPIs visualisations at the cross-border level. These implementations are tangible outputs in the European landscape and can serve as examples for other IMs and Rail Freight Corridors depending on their needs and context.

The intricate dance of facilitating seamless transitions across the various phases of the capacity planning process, and effective coordination between stakeholders demands a wealth of experience and expertise. From the strategic foresight needed for long-term network development to the finesse required in short-term allocation, each phase plays a crucial role in ensuring the smooth functioning of the railway system. To that end, SMA brings a comprehensive understanding, objectivity and innovation to the complexities of the capacity management process, particularly in the light of different national and/or cross-border situations. We will be happy to discuss your needs and challenges on these subjects with you.